BRP’s Picks – April
28th, 2012
YTD (19-8) +15.05 Units
1:05 P.M. – Milwaukee
Brewers (Marco Estrada) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Lohse)
The Cardinals have been money this season, surprising a lot
of people with how well they have played considering the departure of “Warning
Track Power” Albert Pujols. The Cards
come into this game at 13-7 and 5-2 at home, while the Brewers come in at 9-11
and just 3-5 on the road. The Cardinals
have also won 7 of their last 10 games against the Brewers.
I still believe that Vegas is undervaluing the new and
improved Kyle Lohse I have had the pleasure of betting this season. Over the last 3 years Lohse has an E.R.A. of
4.03 at home, a point better than on the road.
Lohse has also been dominant in April over that span, posting a 7-2
record, and 2.92 E.R.A. What impresses
me though is the Lohse of late, he had a 3.39 E.R.A. last year, to go along
with a 2.37 E.R.A. against the Brewers in 3 starts.
Marco Estrada has actually filled in fairly well in his
chances as a spot starter for the Brewers, the fact remains that he is just
that though, a spot starter. Estrada has
a career 4.87 E.R.A., and a terrible home/road split that has resulted in a
6.88 E.R.A. on the road over the last 3 seasons. He has also struggled against his opponent
today, posting a 6.75 E.R.A. against the Cards in that same span.
Kyle Lohse and the Cards at home early in the year = $$$!!!
Cardinals RL -1 at
+105 (3 units to win 3.15)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:10 P.M. – Kansas
City Royals (Bruce Chen) @ Minnesota Twins (Jason Marquis)
The Royals are not as bad as their current 6-14 record, the
Twins are as bad as their 5-15 record suggests though. The Royals seem to have woken up a bit
winning their last 3, while the Twins have lost all of their last 6 games. The Royals have also quite inexplicably gone
6-4 on the road this year, while going 0-10 at home.
Bruce Chen is 34 years old, his career E.R.A. is 4.5, this
guy is a joke. The thing is though Chen
has figured out how to turn back the clock over the last season plus. He didn’t really turn back the clock to how
he pitched before though, he went out and bought a brand new watch. Chen’s 3.77 E.R.A. last season, and 2.52
E.R.A. so far this season show great improvements. Chen also posted a very impressive 2.39
E.R.A. against the Twins last season in 4 games against them.
Jason Marquis is 33 years old, his career E.R.A. is 4.57,
this guy is a joke. No caveat here.
Royals bats are hot, better team, better pitcher, playing
better, even money, Roll!!!
Royals at -115 (3.45
units to win 3)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9:10 P.M. – Washington
Nationals (Stephen Strasburg) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Chad Billingsley)
Both these teams are coming into this game playing VERY good
baseball, at 14-6 on the season thus far.
Both teams are far exceeding expectations, but this game comes down to
the pitching matchup.
The start to this season for Stephen Strasburg is not a
fluke. Is it possible that the most
overhyped pitcher in major league history is now a little under the radar after
his surgery? Strasburg’s career 2.23
E.R.A. is only bettered by his 2.14 E.R.A. on the road, his 1.08 E.R.A. this
season, and his career 0.00 E.R.A. against the Dodgers.
On the other hand Chad Billingsley’s start to his season may
have been a glimpse to his talent, but not a glimpse into reality. Billingsley is a quality pitcher, don’t get
me wrong, but I think his 4.77 E.R.A. is more of a sign of what to expect from
him this year, then his sub 2 E.R.A. was this year in his first 3 starts. He got lit up in his last start, and I
believe his name is a little overvalued here with his early impressions on
betters this season.
Stephen Strasburg, remember the name!!! (like you could
forget it)
Nationals at -115 (3.45
units to win 3)
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