Saturday, April 21, 2012

Pick of the Day - April 21st



BY: NEIL BRASLOW

Overall: 11-7-1
Week: 4-1
Month: 11-7-1
STREAK: 6 of last 7

ST. LOUIS BLUES (HOME) (-190) OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS (AWAY)

The Blues and Sharks have now played 8 times this year. The Blues have won 7 of those meetings. Simply put, the Blues own the Sharks. Put whatever you need to on this game to make a good amount because this is about as close to an absolute lock as you will ever see. Take St. Louis to finish off the series and win.

The Hot Streak: April 21,2012


BRP’s Picks – April 21st, 2012
YTD (9-2) +8.5 Units

1:05 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Mike Leake) @ Chicago Cubs (Paul Maholm)

The Cubs come into this game at 3-11, losers of their last 6 games, and have an impressive streak going right now of giving up 5 or more runs in 8 consecutive games.  The Reds on the other hand have showed signs of their bats finally waking up, scoring 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5, winning all of those games.  This cubs team also hits .062 points higher against lefties on the year, which Maholm is.
Mike Leake hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, but with that being said his E.R.A. is still less than half that off his opponent in this game.  Leake is also one of the few pitchers who prefers to pitch on the road compared to at home over his career.  Leake is also 5-0 with an E.R.A. under 4 in his career in April, and even more impressive holds a career E.R.A. of 2.66 against the Cubs in over a 50 innings pitched sample size.

Paul Maholm is pretty much your definition of a little below-average pitcher.  His 4.42 career E.R.A. pretty much holds true in every match-up / facet of the game, including very close to his career E.R.A. in his new confines of Wrigley field.  Maholm hasn’t quite settled in to pitching for his new team yet though, as it might be jitters, but either was his E.R.A. of 13.5 isn’t promising for the Cubs here.
Better team, better pitcher, Cubs losing streak continues here!!!

Reds ML at -125 (2.5 units to win 2)
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8:35 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Roy Halladay) @ San Diego Padres (Cory Luebke)

The Phillies went crazy and scored 4 runs last night!!!  A bit of a coming out party for them, and an off day for most other teams, but yet again it was more than enough to win.  The Padres are now 1-8 in their last 9 games, and are showing little to no life with their bats right now.  I have a feeling that Doc won’t be the medicine needed to get those Padres bats healthy.

Cory Luebke is a very good pitcher in his own right, posting a sub 3.5 E.R.A. over the last 3 seasons, but surprisingly has an E.R.A. a point lower on the road than at home over that span.  Luebke has also struggled in April posting an E.R.A. over 5, and when it comes down to it, unless he plans on hitting a couple home runs himself, the run support probably won’t be there.

Roy Halladay is well…….. he’s Roy Halladay.  Halladay is 27-12 with a 2.5 E.R.A. on the road in the last 3 years, he’s 12-3 with a 2.5 E.R.A. in April and is already 3-0 with a 1.17 E.R.A. in his first 3 starts this season.  It doesn’t get much better than Doc, oh and he has an E.R.A. of 1.9 against the Pads in 3 starts in that same span, where he’s averaged going 8 innings per start in that streak.
Doc on the mound against a AAA batting team, I’ll take the risk!!!

Phillies RL -1 at -105 (2.1 units to win 2)
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8:10 P.M. – Atlanta Braves (Tommy Hanson) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Joe Saunders)

No Chris Young, No Justin Upton has continued to mean NO offense for the Diamondbacks.  They are now losers of 4 straight, only being able to push 8 runs across the plate during that stretch.  The Braves on the other hand have scored 55 runs over their last 6 games (yeah, that’s over 9 runs per game) and are winners of 9 of their last 10.  To add fuel to the fire, the Braves hit nearly .040 points higher against lefties, and nearly .300 against them on the year, which Saunders is.

Joe Saunders has gotten off to a great start this season, but his career E.R.A. of over 4 is much closer to what you should be able to expect from him for the rest of the season.  Saunders is 4-8 with an E.R.A. close to 5 over the last 3 years in April, look for a regression towards the norm here.

Tommy Hanson and his ridiculous curve ball come into this game looking like he may finally be back and fully healthy.  Hanson’s career 3.3 E.R.A. shows that he is the real deal, and his career 2.39 E.R.A. in April is even more impressive.  Look for Hanson to finally enjoy some run support to improve his record to go along with his great E.R.A.’s.
These teams are going in opposite directions right now, QUICKLY!!!

Braves ML at -120 (1.2 units to win 1)

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Friday, April 20, 2012

The Hot Streak: April 20th,2012


BRP’s Picks – April 20th, 2012
YTD (6-2) +3.5 Units

3:05 P.M. – New York Yankees (Ivan Nova) @ Boston Red Sox (Clay Buchholz)

If you’ve been paying any kind of attention to the baseball season, you know how the highly touted Red Sox have gotten off to another sizzling hot start to the season.  It’s either that or they are performing like the overhyped team that they are, and losing bettors money left and right.  The Sox have gotten off to a 4-8 start, and that offensive explosion in the first 2 games against a series vs. the Rays is starting to look more like an early season anomaly. 

  On the other hand the Yankees have started off the year 7-6, and although it can’t be said they are playing well right now, their bats are doing enough to keep them winning games.
The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight, a pitcher who may have forgotten what it feels like to lose a baseball game he pitches in.  Since the All-Star break last year, Nova is now 10-0, with a sub 3.5 E.R.A.  Nova is one of those rare pitchers who actually performs better on the road in his career than at home by over .5 points on his E.R.A.  Nova has gotten off to a decent start this season, one much better than his counterpoint today in Buchholz.

On the other hand, Buchholz, who many think is a prime candidate for a bounce back season this year, has not looked like someone who’s going to have one thus far this season.  Buchholz sports an E.R.A. of nearly 5 against the Yankees over the last 3 years.  Buchholz has also gotten off to an absolutely terrible start this season posting an E.R.A. of nearly 10, and don’t expect the Yanks bats to ease his pain today.
Hotter team, better team, hotter pitcher, better pitcher, even money, enough said!!! 

Yankees ML at -105 (2.1 units to win 2)
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10:05 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels) @ San Diego Padres (Edison Volquez)

The Phillies bats were able to put up an impressive 2 runs last night!!!  The thing is that was enough for them to win the game, and most likely will be enough for them to win again tonight.  The Padres are now 1-7 in their last 8 games, and as I read in a live blog while watching the game last night “If you have a Padres hitter on your fantasy team, your fantasy team is terrible”.  Those words couldn’t be any more true, and shows the true picture of the Pads lineup this year.

The Padres are pitching Edison Volquez, who has the impressive distinction of having an E.R.A. over 5 in the last 3 seasons, and yet still being considered a top pitching option.  Volquez walks too many batters, and although the talent may be there at some purely physical level, I don’t see that potential coming to fruition any time in the near future.

The Phillies will pitch Cole Hamels tonight against the AAA lineup of the Padres, and I can’t see any reason as to why he won’t be at the same level he always pitches at.  Hamels has an E.R.A. of 2.2 against the Pads over the last 3 years over a 45 inning span.  In those 6 starts against the Pads he has averaged over 7 innings pitched in those starts.
Better hitting team, and the pitching match-up isn’t even close, Roll with the Phillies!!!

Phillies ML at -130 (2.6 units to win 2)
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7:05 P.M. – St. Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Charlie Morton)

The St. Louis Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 non-Adam Wainwright starts this year.  Something just seems very wrong with him, hopefully he figures it out sooner than later, and isn’t still injured.  On the other hand the Pirates are carrying on what is an unprecedented streak to start this season, as they have yet to score, or give up, more than 5 runs in a game this year.  They took 2 of 3 against the offensively depleted D’Backs, but other than that they haven’t played that well thus far this season.

Charlie Morton is another guy whom it amazes me he still gets to be a starter on a MLB team.  Morton’s career 5.4 E.R.A. can only be eclipsed by his even more impressive 6.5 E.R.A. and 2-6 record in April, as he is notoriously a slow starter.
Lynn-sanity in St. Louis……….. anyone?  In all seriousness though Lynn has been great for the Cards thus far this season, and is going to make it tough for the Cards when Carpenter is healthy enough to come back.

This is as much a fade of Morton as it is of the Pirates bats, good price here!!!

Cardinals ML at -130 (1.3 units to win 1)

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Pick of the Day - April 20th



BY: NEIL BRASLOW

Overall: 10-7-1
Week: 3-1
Month: 10-7-1
STREAK: 5 of last 6

NASHVILLE PREDATORS (HOME) (-130) OVER DETROIT RED WINGS (AWAY)

Although every game has been close so far in the series, the Red Wings do not appear to have that same killer instinct as in years past. The series is definitely not over though, as the Red Wings came back from 3-0 down to San Jose last season to force a Game 7. But with a playoff series win finally under their belt from last year, the Predators seem ready to close this one out. Take the Predators.

Who Will Be Leading in Home Runs in NL/AL by All-Star game?

Zac Cordova

AL- Josh Hamilton. I think Hamilton is determined to put together a monster 2012 campaign in a contract year. His Rangers are arguably the best team in baseball, and there is really no way to pitch around anyone in that lineup with how balanced they are. 

NL- Jay Bruce. I know he is off to a slow start, but I feel confident that Bruce will start to show off some of what made him a sleeper MVP candidate sooner rather than later.

Austin Mayland

AL -- Josh Hamilton.  Watching him is bringing me back to the 2008 All Star game when he cranked 28 homers.  
NL -- Matt Kemp.  Is anyone questioning this?

Mini Buddah- Fantasy Guru

AL leader - Jose Bautista has only got 2 so far, but it's been 12 games and his power is legit .
NL leader - Oman Infante....JUST KIDDING. Matt Kemp appears to have picked up where he left off last year.

Justin Millar

AL: Im going to go with Carlos Pena, as he has hit 3 already. I also think he has a possible 35+ home runs season left in him. Over the past 5 seasons, Pena has hit 172 home runs, including 46 in 2007 and 39 in 2009.

NL: With the way he is playing right now, Matt Kemp. Kemp has 6 homers already and is on pace for 97 dingers. 

Agree or Disagree? Our Writers would love to hear your feedback as this is a Baseball Round Table! Thanks for reading!

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NFL Mock Draft: Picks 27-32


By: Chuck Hilston


Team Needs: Pass Rush/OLB, RB, CB
Analysis: Coming off a heart wrenching Super Bowl XLVI loss, there are question marks about age all around their roster. However, fortunately for many in this fan base, this isn’t reason to panic. Being one of the most savvy organizations in all of professional sports, they are no strangers to bringing in young blood. Eli Manning consistently had time to get rid of the ball throughout the big game this year, and that ultimately did them in. Therefore, I think that they’ll be searching for some pass rush here. However, it wouldn’t be a shock if they took a CB either, particularly if they fell further than expected

Who they could draft: Shea McClellin, LB, Boise State; Nick Perry, LB, USC; Stephone Gilmore, CB, South Carolina; Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati


Team Needs: DEFENSE! (DL, CB), RB
Analysis: As much as Aaron Rodgers and the Pack were floating on clouds for most of the year, it really began with an omen. They were torched by Drew Brees and the Saints on opening night. While people can say “Everyone was torched by the Saints” and that is absolutely right, there were concerns about this area that popped up all year long. It culminated in an upset loss on the Frozen Tundra in an NFC Divisional Playoff game against Eli and the Giants. After that, everyone is clamoring for defense, and they need it. In a very big way, in fact it wouldn’t even shock me if they attempted to trade up get Dre Kirkpatrick, or took a chance on Janoris Jenkins.

Who they could draft: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU; Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati; Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama; Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State


Team Needs: WR, Safety, LB
Analysis: This is a team that I really feel might have been the best in the NFL this past year, and I see no reason that Ball So Hard University can’t contend for a title again this year. As much flak (pun intended) as Joe Flacco has taken for his comments that he feels he is the best QB in the league, I have to give him this. He fully gave his team the best chance to win he could in the AFC Championship, so why not get the man more throwing options? That’s definitely something the Ravens should look at this year, as there is a good quantity of them in this draft. Also though, the mainstays of the team, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, are getting to an age where it wouldn’t hurt to groom a potential replacement, or at least a temporary apprentice. Who better to learn from?

Who they could draft: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech; Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame; A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois; Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska




Team Needs: The trenches OL/DL
Analysis: The 49ers were another team who came within a whisker (or a muffed punt, too soon?) of potentially hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy. After flirting with Peyton Manning, they at least appear to have made nice with entrenched starter Alex Smith who finally lived up to his number one pick status. They’ve made some big free agent splashes, most notably landing Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in what is now probably one of the better WR corps in all of football. This team looks very good, however with defections and age playing a factor on the OL and DL it wouldn’t hurt to find an addition here. However, they have more leeway here with their pick than almost any team in the draft.

Who they could pick: Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State; Andre Branch, DE, Clemson; Devon Still, DT, Penn State

31- New England Patriots Pass Rush/OLB, RB, CB

Team Needs:
Analysis: With the loss of the law firm (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) to the Bengals, this might be the time when they decide to take a replacement RB. However, what the Patriots know is that they may be over drafting someone if they take an RB right here, so this might be kind of a wild card pick. Knowing the team that is making this pick, it wouldn’t be surprising if they end up being a five time all-pro. They still have a CB need, so that’s another possibility.

Who they could take: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford; Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State; Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska; Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama; A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois



Team Needs: WR, RB, CB
Analysis: This team lacks the typical feel of invincibility that a Super Bowl champion should have coming into the following season. They didn’t do too much during free agency, other than watching Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs, and Aaron Ross all walk. Also, they have a long road ahead of them as the NFL scheduling committee didn’t do them any favors. Still though, with a great ownership, you have to feel pretty optimistic in the Big Apple.

Who they could take: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor; A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois; Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State; Doug Martin, RB, Boise State; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

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Thursday, April 19, 2012

The Hot Streak: April 19th,2012


BRP’s Picks – April 19th, 2012
YTD (4-2) +1.3 Units

9:40 P.M. – Atlanta Braves (Mike Minor) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Josh Collmenter)

The Braves bats have finally woken up after a very slow start to the season.  They have now scored 43 runs over their last 2 series, and have won 7 of their last 8 games overall.  On the other side of the coin when it comes to being hot as of late are the D’Backs.  They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, and it has a lot to do with injuries.  Chris Young is on the DL now, and was a big reason the D’Backs were doing so well.  Since he left with an injury in the 4th 2 games ago, they have scored 2 runs over the last 14 innings.  The lack of Justin Upton (most likely out for tonight’s game as well) along with CY means the D’Backs offense is a shell of itself right now.

The D’Backs are throwing Josh Collmenter tonight, and I think he is due for a pretty serious regression this season.  Collmenter had a 3.38 E.R.A. last year, but that came out of nowhere really, and his post All-Star E.R.A. was much closer to 4 as players have had a chance to adjust to him.  Don’t be surprised at all if that E.R.A. is much closer to 4.5 this season.  I think he has shown closer to his true colors this season thus far posting an E.R.A. just under 13 in his first 2 starts of the season.

As much as I don’t believe in Collmenter, I think Mike Minor can only go up over the next couple of years.  The ceiling on this kid is very high, and I think he finally realizes some of that potential this season.  In his last start Minor gave up 2 hits in 7+ shut out innings against the Brewers.  Look for Minor to continue rolling tonight against the severely diminished D’Backs offense.
This Braves are the hotter team right now, with the more talented pitcher, roll with them!!!

Braves ML at -120 (1.2 units to win 1)
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10:05 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Vance Worley) @ San Diego Padres (Joe Wieland)

Neither of these teams hitting really strike the fear of God into their opponent, or any kind of fear for that matter.  The Phillies come in 3-4 over their last 7, while the Padres have won just 1 of their last 7 contests.  If you saw Cliff Lee pitch 10, yes 10 scoreless innings last night, and the Phillies still lose, you will know what I’m talking about.  I do think however that the bats will be relieved to see someone a lot easier than Cain tonight, and I think it will wake them up a bit.

Joe Wieland is something of an unknown commodity, and did not perform well against what was admittedly a hot Dodgers team in his first career game.  He wasn’t that highly touted coming out of the minors, and if he sticks around this year, which I doubt, I think it’s safe to say you can expect an E.R.A. over 4.

The Phillies on the other hand throw out who I think is one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball in Vance Worley.  You go into a series against the Phillies, and your ecstatic that you not facing one of the big 3 in Halladay, Hamels, or Lee.  What you don’t realize though is that Worley was 12-4 with a 2.86 E.R.A.  Worley is somewhat of an under the radar dominant pitcher, and gets pushed to the way side because his sub 3 E.R.A. is the worst of 4 pitchers on his own staff.
In a matchup where neither team can hit, I will take the far superior starter at nearly even money!!!

Phillies ML at -115 (1.15 units to win 1)

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Pick of the Day - April 19th



BY: NEIL BRASLOW

Overall: 9-7-1
Week: 2-1
Month: 9-7-1

ST. LOUIS BLUES (AWAY) (-105) OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS (HOME)
The Blues have now beaten the Sharks 6 of 7 times this season. The Sharks scored two cheap goals late to make the score 4-3 in Game 3. It was never that close and Game 1 was a fluke. Until the Sharks show that they can play St. Louis, keep taking the Blues and don't be afraid to go a little bigger than normal on this one. Blues win.

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 21-26


By: Jeff Lingard


Team Needs: WR, G, Defensive Backfield
Analysis: The Bengals pick at #21 will depend largely on who they select with the 17th pick. Advanced O-line metrics rated the Bengals as a good pass protection offence but being mediocre in run blocking. The Bengals also have a large drop off in talent after A.J. Green at wide receiver. If it would be a reach to take an interior blocker or a wide receiver, and the Bengals do not take a cornerback with the 17th pick they would take a cornerback or strong safety with this pick.

Who they could draft: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor; Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech; Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama, Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina


Team Needs: RB, WR, RT
Analysis: Similar to the Bengals, the Browns pick here will heavily depend on the fourth pick in the draft. If Trent Richardson is taken #4 then I see the Browns picking a wide receiver or a tackle that is projected to be taken higher than this pick but falls to them. If the Browns take Justin Blackmon then they likely would take a tackle or may look to trade back into the early second round and take a second tier running back. If the Browns take Morris Claiborne or Matt Kalil then the Browns likely would take the highest rated player on the board regardless of position.

Who they could draft: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor; Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.; Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford; Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

23DetroitLions

Team Needs: CB, O-line, LB, DE
Analysis: The Lions are hoping that Kirkpatrick or Gilmore are still available at #23 as cornerback is a weak spot on their roster. If these two are taken already then the Lions would probably take the highest rated offensive lineman on the board.

Who they could draft: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama; Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina; Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.; Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia


Team Needs: O-line, CB, DT/NT, ILB
Analysis: The largest need for the Steelers is along the offensive line so it is likely that they take whoever of Martin, Adams or Glenn is available. If these three are off the board then either the highest rated inside linebacker or defensive tackle would be taken.  

Who they could pick: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.; Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia; Michael Brockers, DT, LSU; Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama; Devon Still, DT, Penn St.


Team Needs: DT, CB, O-line
Analysis: The Broncos have a large need at defensive tackle but if Kirkpatrick or Gilmore drop to them they would be thrilled. Otherwise the Broncos likely take the highest rated defensive tackle on the board. One wild card is a player like Coby Fleener who might be one of the new breed of tall, fast tight ends in the Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham mould.

Who they could take: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU; Devon Still, DT, Penn St; Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford



Team Needs: WR, OT, ILB
Analysis: The Texans are hoping Cincinnati and Cleveland do not both take wide receivers since they are hoping to select either Wright or Hill to give them another playmaker and more depth in case Andre Johnson cannot stay healthy this year. Otherwise the Texans would take either their highest rated offensive tackle or inside linebacker.

Who they could take: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor; Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech; Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford; Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.; Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia; Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Oh, Bobby V


By Julia Chongarlides

Bobby Valentine has opened his mouth again right after the little scuffle with Curt Schilling last week. He is now outing his third baseman Kevin Youkilis. 

Bobby questioned Youilis’ commitment to the game saying, “I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game as he has been in the past for some reason. But [on Saturday] it seemed, you know, he's seeing the ball well, got those two walks, his on-base percentage up higher than his batting average, which is always a good thing, and he'll move on from there." Why say anything to the media? Youkilis has gotten off to a slow start this season going 2-for-20 through the team’s first six games. But is that a reason to out him?  All the greats go through slumps.  He just went 4-for-10 in the series against Tampa. Maybe, Bobby should worry about getting W’s, not outing his players in front of the limelight.

Last week Schilling said, "I thought that the manager that managed the Mets that I was not a big fan of was now going to be a different manager, and I don't think there's anything different at all. And I don't think that that is going to be conducive to doing well here. There's a lot of things I think that are happening not just from his perspective, but when you talk to these guys -- and I'm still talking to some of these guys -- I don't think this is going well. And I think it's going bad quicker than I expected it to."

Now, Now I thought that was a little harsh, don’t you think? The season started a couple weeks ago and there are plenty of games to come. But, has Schilling noticed Bobby’s inconsistencies? But why would Schilling add the fact that he still talks to the ‘guys’? That’s a low blow! Is he really throwing Valentine’s players under the bus? But, did Bobby’s players even say anything? Either way, I’m glad Valentine responded the way he did. “I think he (Curt) knows a lot about baseball, and I did hang around with him a bit. I don’t think he knows anything about our team,” explained Valentine. In this situation Bobby had a good come back and provided a positive attribute about Curt before stating his opinion.

Schilling also said that he likes Bobby but also doesn’t think his style will work in Boston. In response, Bobby said, “Consider the course.” Is Bobby referring to Curt as a complete idiot? Or is Bobby just being a smart ass? What do you think? As a faithful Red Sox fan, I like Bobby’s style of managing, but I hate that fact that he outs his own players. But who knows, maybe this style will keep Boston focused. Once he figures out his player’s tendencies and stamina levels, the success will start to show.  Bobby has full involvement with his team. He helps players with rehab, films bunting practice, and also helps with the 13 men pitching staff.

Boston is 4-5 not the start fans were expecting after last September’s collapse. But, the Sox are coming off a three game winning streak and the Yankees series is on April 20th. I am sure Boston will be in full swing. Bobby keep ya mouth shut!


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The Hot Streak: April 18,2012



BRP’s Picks – April 18th, 2012
YTD (2-1) -0.8 Units

12:10 P.M. – New York Mets (R.A. Dickey) @ Atlanta Braves (Jair Jurrjens)

The Mets have started off this season playing very well, and have actually taken 4 out of their first 5 games against the Braves this season.  In their matchups thus far these teams haven’t been able to score many runs against each other, but I see that changing for one of the teams today. 

The Mets are throwing R.A. Dickey today, or as I like to call him “The Most Undervalued Pitcher in Baseball”.  I could go through all the stats for Dickey, but the fact remains that his one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and should very easily keep his team in this game today.  Dickey is currently working on a major league leading streak of 14 straight quality starts, look for that number to be at 15 by the end of the game.

On the other hand Jair Jurrjens has been an absolute shell of himself after being hurt near the middle of the year last season.  Jurjjens was able to make 7 post all star break starts last year, posting a horrible 5.88 E.R.A. in those starts.  Since then all he has done is back up the fact that something just isn’t right with him.  He had an absolutely horrendous double-digit E.R.A. in the spring, and has continued that trend posting a 7.71 E.R.A. in his first two starts this season.

This Mets are the team playing better baseball right now, and this pitching matchup screams value here in taking the Mets, start your day off with a win and roll with NY!!!

Mets ML at +115 (3 units to win 3.45)



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815 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Mat Latos) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Jaime Garcia)
The Cardinals have started the year red hot, getting off to a 8-3 start to the season, and the bats have been hot as of late, scoring 22 runs in their last 4 games.  On the other hand the Reds are just 1-4 on the road this season, have gotten off to a 4-7 start to the year, and have managed to score more than 2 runs just twice over their last 8 games. 

This pitching matchup is about as beautiful as it can get with regards to pitchers going in different directions based on matchups.  Latos has an E.R.A. over 5.5 in April to go along with a 1-6 record early in the season over the last 3 years.  Latos also has been terrible against the Cardinals, allowing the team to hit nearly .400 against him and posting a 10.8 E.R.A. against the Cards over that same time span.

As bad has Latos has been against the Card, Garcia has been that good against the Reds.  Garcia has gone 6-1 with a 2.7 E.R.A. against the Reds over the last 3 seasons.  He has also been amazing early in the season posting a beyond sparkling 1.6 E.R.A. and 5-1 record in April.  Lastly, Garcia has loved pitching in his home park over that same span, posting a 2.17 E.R.A. and a 15-8 record.
The Cardinals are playing better right now, and this is a dream pitching matchup!!!

Cards ML at -120 (3.6 units to win 3)
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710 P.M. – Texas Rangers (Derek Holland) @ Boston Red Sox (Josh Beckett)

The Red Sox have gotten off to a 4-7 start this season, and are amidst drama between their team and their manager, as well as playing without their spark in Ellsbury.  The Rangers on the other hand have yet to lose on the road, are off to a 9-2 start on the season.   
The Red Sox are tossing out Josh Beckett today, one of the prime candidates this year in my opinion for extreme regression from last season.  Beckett has also been fairly terrible in April over the last 3 seasons, posting a 5.52 E.R.A. early in the season.  Beckett has also faired horribly against the team he faces today in Texas over the last 3 seasons posting an E.R.A. above 6.

Holland on the other hand is one of the few pitchers in baseball who actually prefers to pitch on the road compared to at home.  His E.R.A. of 4.26 is actually a point better than his home E.R.A. over the last 2 seasons.  Holland has also pitched very well against the Red Sox in that same span posting an E.R.A. under 3 against the team he faces today.
The Rangers are the better team, the hotter team, and with the better matchup for their pitcher today, oh, and they re getting plus money, roll with them!!!

Rangers ML at +115 (2 units to win 2.3)
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Action Junkies (not official plays, but strong leans)
Tigers ML -120 (Tigers vs. gas can in Sanchez)
Marlins ML -125 (Garza does not like the Marlins)
Yankees RL -1.5 -115 (Kuroda settiled in, Marquis should get lit up)
Brewers RL -1.5 +130 (Greinke dominant early, Dodgers slowing down?)
TB/TOR Un. 8 +105 (Both pitchers love facing their opposing team)

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