
BY: MATTHEW ENDER
This is the time of year where sports become the focal point of the world. My wife hates me, my friends start ignoring my calls, and even my mom goes on vacation to avoid me. Productivity at the workplace declines, co-worker camaraderie goes through the roof, and money is thrown at every game imaginable. Oh, and there’s also that little March Madness thing. While I understand all focus is on the “big dance” (and rightfully so, unless you’re
this idiot), if you’re looking for a little break from the 12 vs. 5 seed upset theory and want to prepare for your fantasy baseball draft, you’ve come to the right place. In spirit of the time, I will make this a “tourney-inspired” breakdown of each division, picking a Top Seed, Cinderella, and Bracket Buster. This is for the National League only…American will be released on Friday.
National League East
· Top Seed – Roy Halladay . PHI
A logical pick, this guy seems to be the #1 pitcher in baseball every year for the better part of a decade. The whole “don’t fix what’s not broken“ applies here. Over the past 4 years, Halladay’s “worst number” has been 233 IP, 17 Wins, 1.13 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, 206 K’s and 1.4 BB/9. Those are the WORST of his 4 year totals since 2008. Even if all of those numbers are in 1 year, he is still a Top 3 SP in baseball. The absolute safest pick of the draft, don’t hesitate to take him.
· Cinderella Story – Brandon Beachy, ATL
This up-and-comer has become somewhat of a tournament darling this off-season. After posting a 10.7 K/9 rate over 25 starts last year, he’s a favorite among “high-upside, low-cost” picks this year. Although there are some question marks about his innings cap as well as durability, but his current 114 ADP is well worth the chance to see if he can make it close to 200 IP. However, his draft stock has been soaring so don’t get caught up in reaching too high for him, because after all, he is just a “Cinderella”.
· Bracket Buster – Jose Reyes, MIA
His move to Florida has been looked at as a positive given the guys behind him in the lineup, but Reyes is exactly the type of second round pick who could completely destroy your team. You’re drafting him with the hopes of another .300 BA, 100 R, 40 steal campaign, which at SS could win you a championship, but the durability issues have to make you nervous. He hasn’t played a full year since 2008, and you don’t know how he’ll handle the “dome” down south. His hamstrings have given him fits in the past, and playing in an air-conditioned stadium could cause them to flare up at any point.
National League Central
· Top Seed / Bracket Buster – Ryan Braun, MIL / Joey Votto, CIN
I’ve already expressed my major concern for Braun --
click here if you missed it. He’s going as Top 5 pick overall so I had to include him as a “top seed”, but I really am leaning towards “buster” for him. However, Votto is the true “chalk” pick this year. Since his rookie year in 2008, he has averaged 28 HR, .405 OBP, 96 RBI, and 90 R. Entering his prime, he’s a lock for those numbers again this year with a potential increase in RBI as the guys surrounding him in the lineup are starting to get on base more.
· Cinderella Story – David Freese, STL
Aren’t all these picks about high reward with low risk? This guy has been a serious threat when healthy, but that hasn’t been often. Only 97 games played in the regular season last year, he toyed with fantasy owners and Cardinals fans alike, producing when the opportunity arose but then hitting the DL. His HUGE playoff line (.397/5 HR/21 RBI) could be more of a tease, but maybe he can rise to the occasion and attempt to replace the black-hole sized gap in the Cards lineup (see
Pujols, Albert). Worth a mid-to-late round pick to see if he can stay healthy, but make sure to hedge your bet with another option at 3B just in case!
National League West
· Top Seed – Matt Kemp, LAD
This wasn’t an easy choice for the selection committee as
Troy Tulowitzki and
Clayton Kershaw were snubbed, but Kemp has triple-crown potential that just cannot be ignored. You know by now that I have a thing for the Age-27 batters, and Kemp fits the bill. Coming off one of the best all-around seasons in MLB history, the thought that he could actually IMPROVE on that is scary. Proving to be as durable as anyone, Kemp has only missed 11 games over the past 4 years combined, so you avoid the risk that comes with someone like Tulo. His only potential downfall could be the lack of supporting cast in the Dodgers lineup, but
James Loney is also 27 this year…I’m just sayin’.
· Cinderella Story – Michael Cuddyer, COL
Here’s a guy who has been “ownable” in every league over the past 3 years and helps your team, but never a real star…until now. At Age 32, he may not be poised for a breakout MVP-type season, but he could make a splash in Coors batting behind
CarGo and Tulo…can we now call him Cudo? Ehhhh? We’ll work on that. His power has been there in his career, and playing in Colorado can only improve that. I am setting his floor at .275/20 HR/90 RBI --- well worth his going rate of 93 ADP.
· Bracket Buster – Buster Posey, SF
I love this guy, I really do. However, coming off major reconstructive surgery on his knee as a catcher is a huge red flag. Will he be ready for Opening Day? Will he be able to play every day? 4-5 times a week? Will the lack of a lineup around him hinder his potential? A lot of question marks for the projected 4
th catcher off the board/60
th pick overall. For the first time in 10+ years, the catcher position is deep. Not studs, but serviceable catchers are aplenty this year, so do you really want to burn a 5
th-6
th round pick for a question mark when you can wait 10-15 rounds and still get production? Pass on Posey and pick
Yadier Molina or
Jesus Montero 10 rounds later, you’ll thank me after the season.
As stated above, expect to see the AL breakdown on Friday…maybe even with a little commentary on the first day of games in the tournament. Feel free to barrage me in the comment section -- I’m a glutton for insults.