BY: MATTHEW ENDER
...if you missed the first 5, you can find them
here.
I promised I would be back and just like Kim Kardashian, I stay true to my word. After the higher-than-expected view count (Mom, thanks for clicking over 100 times!) on the first segment of my Bold Predictions for 2012, I have decided to get the final 5 posted. Remember, in order for me to make the Fantasy Hall of Fame, I only need to hit 3 of 10 of these predictions. You know who else WILL hit .300….
6. Carl Crawford will bat .300 with 15 HR, 75 RBI, 100 R, and 40 SB. MINIMUM. OK, this may be a bit of homer pick here, given I bought his jersey last year and the tags are still on it because I was ashamed to show up to Fenway wearing it, but still! This guy is way too talented to not produce. A move to the biggest market in baseball coupled with a hamstring injury caused his first season in Boston to be a major bust. However, the “collapse” and the clubhouse chaos that followed the season immediately took Crawford out of the spotlight, which is what he needed. The wrist injury may have him start the season on the DL, but that only creates the PERFECT opportunity to draft him a little later than you would have originally. Take him anywhere near his ADP of 41 and you will be sending me a gift basket in October with your fantasy winnings.
7. BJ Upton will finally put it all together this year. Finally. OK you caught me, Yvonne Upton paid me a lot of money to give bold predictions about her 2 boys to get their confidence up (see #5 in last article for my love of
Justin Upton). Yvonne, they figured us out. You still want me to go through with this write-up? OK fine. Entering his age-27 season (historically known age for breakout hitters), BJ has been the subject of countless trade rumors. He’s gotten a terrible reputation for playing lazy in the field and has had heated confrontations with
Evan Longoria and Joe Maddon. I’ve drafted him three times over the past four years and regretted it each time. Regardless, I think this is the year he finds a way to bring it all together. He’s going to steal 40 bases and hit 20 homers, but he’s always been a drag on your batting average. This year, he’s going to find a way to strike out less (150+ in each of the last 3 years) and bring his BA up to a respectable .275. If you can get a .275 hitter with 20 HR and 40 SB in the 6
th round (current ADP of 65), you can lock it up as a bargain.
8. Neftali Feliz will falter as a starter and be sent back to the bullpen by the All-Star Break. The Rangers converted
CJ Wilson from closer to starter flawlessly. His stuff is nasty. But his stuff consists of 1 pitch, a 100 MPH fastball. As a closer, you can get away with that because you only face a batter once. Blow it by him three straight times and move on. As a starter, you need to mix up your pitches to keep batters off balance. How can he do that when all he knows is a 100 MPH heater? Exactly, he can’t. His K/9 rate has dropped from 11.3 in 2009 to 7.8 last year and his B/9 has jumped from 2.3 to 4.3 in that same time frame. The drop in K’s and increase in BB’s make perfect sense considering batters now have enough evidence to know that the fastball is coming. I’d let someone else believe this is CJ Wilson 2.0 and draft him.
9. Curtis Granderson will come crashing back to Earth. Last year, only 1 thing was better than an Anderson. This year, there won’t be anything. In his 6 full seasons prior to 2011, his career highs in HR’s and RBI’s were 30 and 74, respectively. Yet somehow in his age-30 season, he puts up 41 HR and 119 RBI, along with 136 runs! The most glaring difference in 2011 comapred to prior years is his splits vs lefties. Granderson hit 16 HR with 44 RBIs against south-paws last year…now realize he COMBINED for 15 HR and 52 RBIs vs lefties in the previous 5 years. COMBINED! I’m taking my chances that he regresses back to the mean and doesn’t use the short porch in Yankee Stadium like he did last year. I’d be much happier taking
Mike (errrGiancarlo) Stanton 5 picks later than hoping for a repeat of a career year from Granderson.
10. The Washington Nationals have 4 SPs finish in the Top 40 SP ranks. This rotation can be scary. Very, very scary.
Stephen Strasburg has been Cy Young material every time he’s been on a mound in his young career, both before and after Tommy John surgery. He had 2 walks in 5 starts last year after coming back from TJS. Most guys take months to regain their command, but Strasburg found a way to improve it. His only downfall is the potential innings cap, preliminarily set at 160.
Jordan Zimmerman is another year removed from his own Tommy John Surgery,
Edwin Jackson will give you 150K's with 12 wins and a 3.50 ERA , and newly-acquired
Gio Gonzalez will continue to trend upwards of 200K and a sub-3.20 ERA --- all provide plenty of value at a low cost and will finish in the Top 40. Watch out Phillies, your rotation now has company.
There they are, my 10 Predictions for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season. I look forward to helping you win (or miserably lose) your fantasy league this year, so please check back every week for a new article, especially looking forward to my recap of my long-running 10 team mixed league points league draft which takes place on Tuesday, March 20. Only 26 days until Opening Day…
Think I’m an idiot? Think I really am a mini Buddha? Want to bet me that I won’t get any of these right? Let me know in the comment section.
“Mini Buddha – Fantasy Guru” aka Matt Ender