By: Jeff Lingard
The drama between Rick Nash and the
Columbus Blue Jackets finally ended on Monday with Nash, along with Steven
Delisle and a 2013 third round pick being traded to the Rangers for Brandon
Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Tim Erixon and a 2013 first round pick. Columbus
retains their third round pick if the Rangers reach the 2012-2013 finals.
Assuming the season starts on time, let’s have a look at the short-term and
long-term implications of this deal:
For the Rangers:
The Rangers add a big winger who can score
at least 30 goals a season and isn’t a liability defensively. Nash is a
physical presence who should fit into the Rangers “heavy hockey” style. Nash is
also durable, playing at least 75 games in each of the past six seasons. Nash
is probably going to be paired with Brad Richards, who is a much better centre
than he has been used to playing with. Nash has been a standout international
player when he plays with higher caliber players so he should fit into New York
well. The possible downside with Nash is that he has not been an elite goal
scorer in the past three years (30, 32 and 33 goals) and he has a contract that
has a cap hit of $7.8 million per year until 2017-18. The Rangers have more
than enough cap room to absorb this cap hit for the next two years. He will
have to return to elite goal scoring production in the next three or four years
because his contract could make it difficult for the Rangers to retain their
young defensive core.
The Rangers can replace Dubinsky and
Anisimov with Nash and a full year of Chris Kreider. Dubinsky wasn’t performing
up to expectations or his contract and Anisimov is a useful player but not a
pivotal one. The Rangers could afford to trade Erixon because they already have
a strong, young defensive core in Staal, Girardi, McDonagh and Del Zotto. The
first round pick in 2013 should be between the 25th and 30th spot and likely would not
result in a player that makes a difference and would be two to three years away
from the NHL so trading the pick is a good idea in the Rangers case.
Unless Nash falls on his face and seriously
underperforms this deal should be a win for the Rangers, especially in the
short term. If Nash becomes a 25 goal
scorer and his contract makes it hard for the Rangers to keep some of their
defencemen or young forwards in three or four years (especially if the cap
decreases) then this deal would be considered a loss. I think given what they
gave up, this trade was a risk that the Rangers had to take.
For the Blue Jackets:
Scott Howson put his team between a rock
and a hard place with bad trades, draft picks and free agent signings. Somehow,
ownership allowed him to be in charge with trading the Blue Jackets first and
only franchise player. The Jackets received a number of useful players and a
lottery pick with the Rangers 1st round pick but this was closer to
a single compared to a home run when evaluating this trade. How Howson was
unable to get one of Kreider, McDonagh or Del Zotto in this trade is beyond me.
Dubinsky and Anisimov will both probably
play on the top two lines this year. Dubinsky has a cap hit of $4.2 million for
each of the next three years which is high for a player with two 20 goal
seasons in a four year career. He scored 10 goals in 77 games in 2011-12 and
needs to increase his production to be considered a successful pickup by the
Jackets. Anisimov is a useful, two-way forward who can score 15 goals a year.
He’s not a game changing player but he is only 24 and may have some more offensive
upside with more ice time. He also may be a valuable trade chip for a higher
round draft pick at the trade deadline.
The real prize of this deal for the Jackets
is Erixon. He isn’t going to be a goal scorer or provide a large amount of
offence but he is projected to be an above average defensive defenceman and
will fill out what will be a good top 4 of Ryan Murray, Jack Johnson and James
Wisniewski in the future. Erixon is going to be a solid NHL player but probably
won’t be a star. The first round pick gives the Jackets system more depth and
should provide a second or third line forward or a 3rd or 4th
defenceman in 3 or 4 years.
The Jackets do get a little bit of cap
relief by getting out of the long term commitment that was Nash’s contract. They
also needed to make a trade before training camp so the Nash drama wouldn’t
cause too much of a distraction. The Jackets need a lot to go right to
challenge for a playoff spot in the next couple of years. If I was a Blue
Jackets fan, the fact that the return for Nash lacks a player that projects to
be a star would leave me disappointed with this trade.
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