BRP’s Picks – May 7th,
2012
YTD (24-17) +1.05 Units
8:10 P.M. – Cincinnati
Reds (Bronson Arroyo) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Yovani Gallardo)
The Reds come into this game 1 game above .500 on the year,
and 1 game below .500 this year. The
Brewers come in struggling so far this year without Fielder, at 12-16 on the
year and just playing .500 ball at home.
The Reds also come in as the hotter team, winners of 5 of their last 7
games, while the Brewers have lost 7 of the last 10 games they have played.
If you’ve ever watched Bronson Arroyo pitch before, you know
that he’s not overpowering, but is annoying as hell to hit against. So far this season Arroyo has been annoying
batters at a good success rate, and it has led to an E.R.A. of just above 3 so
far this season. He has a career E.R.A.
of right around 4, and as one of those head scratching stats, Arroyo just
absolutely LOVES pitching at Miller Park where he happens to be starting
tonight. In his last 4 starts on the
road against the Brewers, Arroyo has posted a 1.95 E.R.A. while averaging 7
innings per start.
I made a bet when this season started with my friend that
Ian Kennedy would out perform Yovani Gallardo this season. It’s safe to say that I like the way that bet
is going so far, and a lot of that thanks has to go to Yovani. He has gotten off this season to a 5.79
E.R.A., and just doesn’t seem to have it this season. Don’t expect that to change at all tonight,
as again, here is another one of those head scratching stats. Gallardo has an E.R.A. of 6.51, and a WHIP of
nearly 2 against the Reds in 9 career starts against the team he is facing
tonight.
Reds come with Arroyo to Miller Park, the wrong team is
favored here!!!
Reds at +130 (2 units
to win 2.6)
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8:10 P.M. – Los
Angeles Angels (Jered Weaver) @ Minnesota Twins (Francisco Liriano)
An over in an Angels / Twins game, I know, off the top it
doesn’t sound the most appealing. I’m
not gonna go into these 2 teams atrocious hitting stats so far this
season. What I will say is that Pujols
first HR yesterday should wake him, and in turn, the Angels bats up for the
near future.
Jered Weaver is a dominant pitcher, one of the best in
baseball, and I’m not going to go into his overall stats, because they are that
good. Jered Weaver has pitched 20+
innings against 17 different teams over the last 3 years. Although it makes no sense, the team he has
the highest E.R.A. over that span against is the Twins, who which he sports a
4.81 E.R.A. over 6 starts. He also hates
pitching in the Metrodome, posting a 5.68 E.R.A. in the building he’s pitching
in tonight.
Francisco Liriano is a human gas can right now. If the Angels bats are struggling, they
shouldn’t be tonight. Liriano posts a
very impressive E.R.A. just .03 points shy of 10 on the season over his first 5
starts this year. For all the struggles
the Angels bats have had this year, Liriano has also managed to serve up 10
runs to them in just 10.1 innings, as he has already faced them twice this
year. What may be more impressive is the
fact that his E.R.A. of nearly 9 this year against the Angels is actually a bit
of an improvement over his last 3 seasons against the Halos. Liriano sports an 11.32 E.R.A. against the
Angels over the last 3 years.
Liriano should give up at least 5 by himself here, Halos
could cover this number themselves!!!
1st 5
Total Ov. 4 +110 (2 to win 2.2)
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9:40 P.M. – St. Louis
Cardinals (Lance Lynn) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Joe Saunders)
The Cardinals have been hitting very well as of late, on the
other hand I think the D’Backs are still struggling due to missing Chris
Young. I’m not going under here because
of the lineups though, I’m going under because pitching trumps hitting, and the
pitching matchup is too good here for this high a number.
Lance Lynn has taken over the rotation spot for Chris
Carpenter, and apparently taking over Chris Carpenter’s rotation spot turns you
into Chris Carpenter. The impressive
thing is though, that might be an insult to a pitcher who has posted a 1.60
E.R.A. in his first 5 starts after being given a chance to start. The Cards are going to have a decision to
make when Carpenter comes back, if Lynn hasn’t already made that decision tough
enough, watch him make it for them tonight!
Joe Saunders has also been one of the bigger surprises to
start this season. Saunders is also
another prime example of how changing from the AL to the NL pretty much
instantly drops your E.R.A. at least half a point. Saunders career E.R.A. is over 4, but since
joining the D’Backs it has been below 3.5.
So far this season Saunders has been terrific, posting a 1.24 E.R.A.
over his first 5 starts. As a little
boost, Saunders has faced the Cards once in his career, in that start he gave
up 0 runs.
Two pitchers in the zone right now, this number is too high!!!
1st 5
Total Un. 4 ½ +110 (2 units to win 2.2)
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10:05 P.M. – Colorado
Rockies (Drew Pomeranz) @ San Diego Padres (Edison Volquez)
Padres at -110 (1.1
units to win 1)
***I’m not going to
do write-ups on 1 unit plays, but I feel there is definitely value in them, and
I’m tired of not posting them as they have been consistently hitting at a high rate
as of late, consider them free plays***
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