BRP’s Picks – May 5th,
2012
YTD (21-14) +2.85 Units
1:05 P.M. – Philadelphia
Phillies (Vance Worley) @ Washington Nationals (Gio Gonzalez)
The Nationals come into this game at a very good 17-9 on the
year, and even more impressive is there 11-3 record at home this season. The Phillies come into this game a game below
.500 on the season, and a game below .500 on the road this year as well. The Nationals have also dominated this series
of late, taking the last 6 matchups against their division rivals.
If you have been reading this thread since its start, you
know how much I love my boy Gio, and how much money I think there is to be made
off of him this year. Gio is simply the
most undervalued pitcher in baseball, and his transition to the NL this year
has been about exactly what I expected of it.
That is that he has gotten off to a 1.82 E.R.A. overall this season,
along with a 0.00 E.R.A. at home while allowing 6 base runners and striking out
15 batters over 14 innings pitched.
Vance Worley is also one of my favorite pitchers to back
when I’m betting, but he is not a guy to back as much when he is pitching on
the road. The Phillies don’t have a
potent offense any more to back up Worley, and his E.R.A. is 1.2 points higher
on the road then at home in his career.
Worley also has a career E.R.A. that is .76 points higher against the
Nats then his overall E.R.A. would suggest.
Gio, Gio, Gio. Don’t
be surprised to see this kids name in NL Cy Young conversations this year!!!
Nats RL -1 at +120 (2
units to win 2.4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:10 P.M. – Oakland
Athletics (Bartolo Colon) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Jeremy Hellickson)
The Athletics are playing fairly good baseball right now, as
they come into this game just 1 game below .500 on the year, and exactly .500
on the road this year. The Rays come
into this game as the hottest team in baseball, winners of 9 of their last 10
games. The Rays are 19-8 this year,
including an amazing 13-1 at home so far.
Jeremy Hellickson is an absolute BEAST, and he only gets
better with time. Hellickson is one of
the best pitchers at home in all of baseball in his career so far. He has a career E.R.A. of 2.51 at Tropicana
in over 100 innings pitched, which is only matched but what ironically is
exactly a 2.51 E.R.A. that he is sporting thus far this season.
Bartolo Colon has been very good thus far this season, as he
has seemed to turn back the clock a bit so far this season. All that means to me though is that he is due
for a regression, and he is due for it to happen very shortly. Colon has also struggled against the Rays
over the last 3 seasons, posting a horrible E.R.A. of 6.23 over his last 5
starts against them.
Hellickson at home, and the Rays are on an absolute tear,
Straight cash!!!
Rays RL -1 at +100 (2
units to win 2)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:10 P.M. – New York
Yankees (Hiroki Kuroda) @ Kansas City Royals (Felipe Paulino)
The Royals continue to impress, as they have amazingly
gotten off to a 1-11 start this year at home.
The Yankees aren’t setting the world on fire either, but they come into
this game 2 games above .500 on the season, and 1 game above .500 on the road
for the year.
The Royals look to stop the bleeding by bringing back Felipe
Paulino off of the DL for his first start this year. The problem with that is that Paulino seems
to bring on more bleeding then anything else.
Paulino has a career E.R.A. of 5.28, and a very impressive winning
percentage of under .250. Paulino also
sports an E.R.A. of nearly 9 against the Yankees over the last 3 seasons.
I believe that Hiroki Kuroda will eventually settle down
into his role with the Yankees, and that seems to have already started, giving
up just 3 runs over his last 2 starts.
Over his career Kuroda has been a very consistent pitcher who lacked run
support. I have no reason to believe why
that consistency shouldn’t change, and why that new found run support should
make him a fairly good pitcher this year.
Fade the royals at home, and Paulino just off the DL, Yanks
bats are in for some fun!!!
Yankees RL -1 at -115
(2.3 units to win 2)
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